Cleveland has the #2 OPS during day games this year and they face the young and hard throwing Nathan Eovaldi. I really don't like this match up for Eovaldi who is walking 4.24 guys per 9 and really relies on his hard throwing fast ball which he throws 72% of the time with an average velocity of 96mph. Pitchers like this tend to struggle early in their career on 4 days rest. This is the first time he's making back to back starts on 4 days rest and while he has a 2.50 ERA at home he's faced some pretty poor offenses in the Mets, Nationals and Padres so I 'm not putting to much weight on that. The Indians have hit RH starters well who struggle with their control Take Verlander for instance who is having an uncharacteristic year with his control walking 3.5 guys per 9. The Indians have scored 11 runs off him in 3 starts while he has a 5.82 ERA against them. The other RH starters with more than 4 BB's per 9 have posted a 9.45 ERA. Eavoldi has been very lucky with a .237 BABIP but not today.
On the flip side Scott Kazmir has really turned things around and is on 5 days rest after just 87 pitches. He has a 1.67 ERA over his last 4 starts on 5 days rest and he faces a Marlins team that is 28th in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 1.54 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 combined. He should be able to pitch a quality outing in this one against a poor hitting team and he's backed by a bullpen that is trending upward with a 3.20 ERA in their last 3 outings for each reliever combined.
This is a great opportunity for Phil Hughes to come out and have a great start. He's on more than 5 days rest and he's in a ball park that is kind to fly ball pitchers which he certainly is. Hughes has a 6.02 ERA home and a 3.02 ERA on the road because he is such a high fly ball pitcher getting just 30% GB. Hughes otherwise has good numbers and is facing a team that has struggled vs. RHP all year and is scoring just 2.31 over their last 10 combined vs. RHP.
The Yankees got Curtis Granderson back last night and he hit a home run that's good news as they'll go up against Ian Kennedy a former 21st overall pick of the Yankees. Kennedy has seen better days, but hoping to make a new name this season with the Padres. Kennedy has a 6.81 ERA in his last 6 on 4 days rest and is also a fly ball pitcher. The difference is Kennedy has struggled with control allowing more than 1BB/9 compared to Hughes. He also has a very high 24.7% line drive percentage compared to Hughes 21.4%. Alfonso Soriano has 3 HR against Kennedy in 13 AB and with Granderson back in the line up as a HR threat I see Kennedy struggling again with his control as Hughes pitches a gem while he's backed by the Yankees excellent bullpen.
